The following papers, listed alphabetically by the first author's last name, have been accepted for publication in JEEA, and can be downloaded in in the EEA membership log in area.
24 January 2023
Dynamics of Large Multinationals
Multinational enterprises are very large multi-product firms. To capture salient features of the data, we develop a model of large multinational enterprises, each one producing a continuum of products. These outsized firms compete as oligopolists in a domestic and foreign market, facing competitive pressure from monopolistically competitive single-product firms. The multinational enterprises engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to expand the product scope of their foreign affiliates, and they invest in research and development (R&D) in order to invent new products.
18 January 2023
Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers’ expectations, then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future interest rates and inflation.
7 December 2022
Inattention Matters: An Analysis of Consumers' Inaction in Choosing a Water Tariff
This paper studies consumers’ choice between two different water tariffs. We document a large inaction in a novel setting where customers face a binary decision and receive simple, detailed and personalized information about the financial savings they would obtain if they were to switch water tariff. Our empirical framework separates two sources of inertia: inattention and switching costs. The model estimates that half of the customers that would benefit from changing tariff are not aware of the opportunity they are offered. Conditional on paying attention, we estimate median switching costs to be around £100.
6 May 2022
On Risk and Time Pressure: When to Think and When to Do
We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative implies progress that has to be converted to a solution. As time runs out, the chances of converting it in time shrink.
5 October 2021
Organizing Competition for the Market
We study competition for the market in a setting where incumbents (and, to a lesser extent, neighbouring incumbents) benefit from a cost or information advantage. We first compare the outcome of staggered and synchronous tenders, before drawing the implications for market design. We find the timing of tenders interrelates with the likelihood of monopolisation.
10 January 2023
Reporting Peers’ Wrongdoing: Evidence on the Effect of Incentives on Morally Controversial Behavior
I show that offering monetary rewards to whistleblowers can backfire as a moral aversion to being paid for harming others can reverse the effect of financial incentives. I run a field experiment with employees of the Afghan Ministry of Education, who are asked to confidentially report on their colleagues’ attendance. I use a two-by-two design, randomizing whether or not reporting absence carries a monetary incentive as well as the perceived consequentiality of the reports.
10 March 2021
The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots
We use detailed administrative data to study the adjustment of local labor markets to industrial robots in Germany. Robot exposure, as predicted by a shift-share variable, is associated with displacement effects in manufacturing, but those are fully offset by new jobs in services.
26 January 2023
The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone
Using a newly assembled rich dataset at the regional level, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the effects of fiscal policy in the Eurozone. Our baseline estimates reveal a government spending relative output multiplier around 2, an employment multiplier of 1.4, and a cost per job created of approximately €30,000. Moreover, we find that a regional fiscal stimulus leads to a significant increase in private investment, productivity, and durable consumption.
26 January 2023
The Human Cost of Collusion: Health Effects of a Mexican Insulin Cartel
Despite recent attention to the role of competition in determining health outcomes in developed nations, little is known about how market power impedes access to quality care in lower-income countries. This paper studies the effects of policy changes that stopped collusion among firms supplying insulin to one of Mexico’s largest health care providers.
5 March 2021
The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime
This paper evaluates the effect on crime of creating a fundamental modern-day institution: centralized professional police forces tasked with preventing crime. We study the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police – the first professional force worldwide.
15 December 2022
Women’s Labor Market and Fertility Responses to a Health Innovation
We investigate women’s fertility, labor and marriage market responses to a health innovation that led to reductions in mortality from treatable causes, and especially large declines in child mortality. We find delayed childbearing, with lower intensive and extensive margin fertility, a decline in the chances of ever having married, increased labor force participation and an improvement in occupational status.